Is Pakistan’s Intelligence Community Trying to Widen the Gap Between India and America? A Deep Dive into South Asia’s Shifting Geopolitics
By : Vijesh Nair
Date:09/12/2025
Introduction
In recent years, global geopolitics has undergone dramatic shifts. From the rise of China to the re-emergence of Russia as a strategic powerhouse, many countries have been busy recalibrating their foreign policies. India, too, stands at a crucial crossroads—strengthening its historical ties with Russia, cautiously engaging with China, and maintaining a complex but important partnership with the United States.
Amid this evolving landscape, several analysts, security experts, and geopolitical commentators argue that Pakistan’s intelligence ecosystem may be attempting to widen the diplomatic gap between India and the United States. They suggest that misinformation campaigns, narrative-building, cross-border propaganda, and covert influence operations might be used to offer a strategic advantage to Pakistan and its allies.
But how much of this is speculation, and how much is rooted in observable geopolitical patterns? Let us explore this in depth.
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India’s Changing Global Posture
To understand why some believe Pakistan might attempt such strategies, we must first examine India’s current foreign policy direction.
1. India’s Long-standing Ties with Russia
For decades, Russia has been India’s largest defense supplier. Despite global pressure—especially after the Ukraine crisis—India has continued to import discounted Russian oil and maintain strategic defense cooperation. Russia remains vital to India’s energy security and defense modernization.
2. India’s Strategic Moves with China
India’s relationship with China is deeply complicated. On one hand, both nations are major trading partners and members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). On the other hand, they are military rivals with unresolved border disputes.
Yet, India has not completely abandoned engagement with China. Instead, New Delhi balances deterrence with diplomacy. This is often interpreted by some Western circles as India “drifting closer” to China—though the reality is more nuanced.
3. India–US Relations: Strong but Under Pressure
India–US ties have grown significantly over the past 20 years:
Defense partnerships like LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA
Quad cooperation
Joint military exercises
Technology and semiconductor collaborations
However, the relationship is not without friction:
Differences on Ukraine and Russia sanctions
India’s refusal to align completely with US-China rivalry
US criticisms on internal political issues
Economic protectionism on both sides
This creates a landscape where external actors might attempt to exploit the tensions.
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Why Would Pakistan Want to Create a Divide Between India and America?
Pakistan sees India as a traditional regional rival. Any weakening of India’s partnerships—especially with a major power like the United States—could be viewed as beneficial for Islamabad.
1. Strategic Balance in South Asia
Pakistan fears India’s growing global stature. A strong India-US partnership amplifies that concern:
Enhanced defense capabilities for India
Greater international diplomatic support
Economic opportunities flowing toward India
Weakening this bond could benefit Pakistan’s regional leverage.
2. Pakistan’s Dependence on China
Pakistan is now deeply aligned with China through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A weakened India-US relationship could:
Strengthen Pakistan’s value to China
Reduce India’s influence in global and regional forums
Ease pressure on Pakistan in issues like FATF monitoring
3. Intelligence Strategy and Proxy Narratives
Historically, Pakistan’s intelligence agencies have engaged in:
Disinformation campaigns
Influence operations
Narrative warfare
Diplomatic pressure games
Leveraging radical groups for geopolitical signalling
This makes analysts suspect that similar tools could be used to target India-US relations.
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Possible Methods Pakistan Could Use to Shape Narratives
While there is no direct proof of active operations, security experts highlight several potential methods historically linked to intelligence agencies in the region.
1. Digital Propaganda and Social Media Campaigns
Fake news networks can:
Spread stories of US interference in India
Amplify anti-American sentiments
Highlight friction within the Quad
Promote narratives accusing the US of undermining India’s sovereignty
These campaigns often target youth and politically sensitive groups.
2. Leveraging Diaspora and Media Channels
Foreign media networks and diaspora communities can sometimes be influenced—intentionally or coincidentally—to echo divisive narratives.
For example:
Claims that the West wants to destabilize India
Stories portraying India’s policies as anti-Muslim to alienate it from Western democracies
Narratives suggesting the US favors Pakistan over India
3. Diplomacy Behind Closed Doors
Pakistan may quietly encourage China or certain Middle Eastern allies to highlight India’s contradictions and strategic ‘unreliability’ to the United States.
4. Intelligence Leaks and Psychological Operations (PsyOps)
Well-timed leaks or allegations—even if unverified—can be used to:
Question India’s global commitments
Suggest India is moving fully into Russia-China bloc
Cast suspicion on India’s intelligence community
Such tactics have been recorded historically in South Asia’s intelligence battles.
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India Getting Closer to Russia and China: Reality or Misinterpretation?
It is essential to examine why the perception exists that India is drifting away from the United States and moving closer to Russia and China.
India’s Russia Ties Are Strategic, Not Ideological
India’s reliance on Russian oil and weapons is primarily practical. Replacing Russian systems overnight is impossible:
70% of India's military equipment has Russian base
Russia provides affordable energy
Moscow supports India in the UN Security Council
India seeks strategic autonomy, not alignment.
India’s Engagement with China Is Not Friendship
While economic ties remain, India continues:
Border deployment in Ladakh
Infrastructure buildup in Arunachal Pradesh
Strategic partnerships with Japan, Australia, US
Dialogue does not equal dependence.
Is India Distancing from the US?
Not exactly. India is strengthening domestic policy independence. It refuses to take sides blindly. The US is still one of India’s most significant partners in:
defense
space
technology
counter-terrorism
education
trade
However, Western pressure on India—especially on internal policy issues—creates friction, which external actors may try to amplify.
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Has Pakistan Actually Succeeded in Influencing India-US Relations?
There is no concrete evidence that Pakistan’s intelligence directly created a tangible change in India-US ties. However, there are areas where their influence operations might align with existing tensions.
1. Amplifying Sensitive Domestic Issues in India
Narratives around:
religious tensions
human rights concerns
Kashmir
political polarization
are often picked up by global media. Some analysts believe Pakistan-linked networks attempt to magnify these issues to influence Western political circles.
2. Highlighting Indo-Russian Alignment
By emphasizing India’s ties with Russia, Pakistan could fuel suspicion in Washington’s strategic circles. This could pressure the US to question India’s reliability in global partnerships.
3. Creating an Image of India as Unpredictable for the West
This narrative helps Pakistan appear more aligned with Western interests—especially in counter-terror cooperation discussions.
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The Broader Geopolitical Reality: India Cannot Be Pulled Away Easily
Even if Pakistan or any external actor attempts to create distance between India and the US, several factors work against such efforts.
1. India’s Market Power
With its massive middle class and rapid economic growth, India is too valuable for the US to ignore.
2. Shared Concerns About China’s Rise
India and the US have strong common interests:
free and open Indo-Pacific
countering authoritarian expansion
securing global trade routes
3. Technology and Defense Convergence
The US relies on India for:
supply chain diversification
semiconductor ecosystem
critical minerals
defense co-production
These ties are difficult to break.
4. India’s Global Influence Is Rising
India’s leadership role in G20, climate action, and global south diplomacy makes it indispensable—a fact the US acknowledges.
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Will India Move Closer to Russia and China Permanently?
India follows a “multi-alignment” strategy. It does not belong to any camp fully.
India Will Work With Russia for:
energy
defense
long-term strategic support
India Will Engage China for:
economic necessity
diplomatic balance
India Will Partner With the US for:
technology
defense innovation
geopolitical balance against China
India’s foreign policy is designed to maximize national interest without becoming dependent on any one country.
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Conclusion: A Complex Game of Shadows
The idea that Pakistan’s intelligence community is trying to widen the gap between India and America is rooted in historical patterns of rivalry, propaganda, and cross-border narrative warfare. However:
There is no hard proof that such efforts have significantly altered India-US relations.
India’s foreign policy is driven by national interest, not external manipulation.
India maintains strategic autonomy—balancing ties with Russia, China, and the US simultaneously.
Still, in a world of digital misinformation, psychological operations, and geopolitical maneuvering, the possibility of influence attempts cannot be dismissed entirely. Pakistan, like many nations, may attempt to exploit friction between India and the West. But the resilience and maturity of India’s diplomacy make it unlikely these efforts will succeed in any significant way.
South Asia continues to be a hotbed of geopolitical contest—where narratives, alliances, and strategies shift rapidly. Only time will reveal how the India-US relationship evolves and how regional actors attempt to shape its destiny.
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